Purdue Climatologists Say La Niña Could Create Drought Conditions

By Mike Perleberg File photo. (West Lafayette, Ind.) – Could Indiana be in for a drought this summer? Climatologists at the Indiana State Climate Office at Purdue University believe it’s a possibility. Some counties in far northern Indiana and the northeast part of the state are already abnormally dry. What the spring and summer weather does from here will depend on the strength of a developing La Niña weather pattern. The office says stronger La Niña conditions in summer typically result in hotter or drier Midwest summers. "This, combined with the need by plants to replace water lost through evaporation, is setting a classic scenario for a regional drought," said Dev Niyogi, a state climatologist. Associate state climatologist Ken Scheeringa said that if La Nina develops quickly with at least moderate intensity, it could lead to drought conditions in Indiana by August. "In recent years, there has been a trend to fall droughts in Indiana," he said. "For example last year, moderate drought occurred from late September into late December." In the shorter term, the second half of June is expected to be drier than normal. There are equal chances that July and August will be wetter, drier or near normal in precipitation across the Midwest and a slightly higher chance of drier-than-normal conditions over Indiana. Indiana’s last devastating drought took place in 2012. Crop insurance payouts for that year’s lost fields reached a record $1 billion. It’s too early say if Indiana farmers or folks with vegetable gardens will have anything to worry about this growing season. "We will monitor the situation," Niyogi said. "Droughts don't always mean lowered yields. The timing, intensity, duration and area covered matter." According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Indiana Crop Report, as of June 12 about 98 percent of the state's corn crop has been planted, nearly on par with the state's five-year average. Ninety-one percent of soybeans have been planted so far, just ahead of the five-year average. RELATED STORIES: Purdue: Corn Crops Ahead Of Schedule, But Soybean May Be Best