STUDY: Indiana Population Expected to Grow by 2060; Decrease Projected Locally

A study was recently conducted by the Indiana Business Research Center at IU Kelley School of Business.

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(Bloomington, Ind.) - Indiana’s population will grow by nearly 383,000 residents between 2020 and 2060, according to a study by the Indiana Business Research Center at IU Kelley School of Business.

That is a 5.6 percent increase statewide over the next 40 years. Growth is expected to be front-loaded with 60 percent of the gains taking place by 2030. Most of the growth is projected in metro areas.

Population change is caused by migration and natural increase, or the difference between the number of births and deaths. Natural increase has been the dominant source of Indiana’s growth for decades – including 70 percent of the state’s growth in the past decade.

“Our projections show sharp decline in natural increase over the next 40 years and that the state will begin to see a natural decrease of the population — with deaths outnumbering births — beginning in the 2040s,” Matt Kinghorn said. “In-migration will become Indiana’s sole source of growth.”

While the study shows a population increase statewide, population decreases are projected in five southeastern Indiana counties.

Included in the study was data from Stats Indiana, which showed a forecasted 14 percent drop in Dearborn County’s school age children (ages 5-19) from 2020 to 2050. The data also forecasted an 8.3 percent drop in the county’s working age population (ages 20-64) in 30 years.  

Franklin, Ohio, Ripley and Switzerland counties are projected to take similar hits in population, which can be seen below.

For more information, visit Indiana population growth projected to slow due to rising mortality, declining births: IU News or Projections Topic Page: STATS Indiana